Top Japanese Stocks: Daily Forecast Evaluation Report

June 25, 2020

Executive Summary

In this stock market forecast evaluation report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Japanese stocks for long and short positions (20 stocks) which were sent daily to our customers. Our analysis covers the period from January 1st, 2019, to June 22nd, 2020 and further analyzes the performance of the Japanese market since the beginning of the Coronavirus pandemic, February 22nd, 2020.

Chart 1: Performance comparison for Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 signals by Daily Model vs Nikkei 225 for short term horizons since January 1st, 2019 until June 22nd, 2020.
Chart 2: Performance comparison for Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 signals by Daily Model vs S&P 500 for period since February 22nd, 2020 (Coronavirus) until June 22nd, 2020.

Top Japanese Stocks Highlights

  • The Top 20, Top 10, and Top 5 signal groups generated by I Know First consistently outperformed Nikkei 250 Index for all three time horizons.
  • The Top 5 signal group outperformed the Nikkei 250 by 5.39% using the two-week time horizon.
  • Since the start of the Coronavirus, the Top 20, Top 10, and Top 5 signal groups generated by I Know First remained extremely profitable, while the Nikkei 250 declined.
  • Using the two-week time horizon, the top 5 signal group outperformed the Nikkei 250 by 10.89% since the start of the Coronavirus.
  • Every signal group generated by I Know First succeeded in outperforming Nikkei 250 both before and after the start of the Coronavirus pandemic.
  • Hit ratios for all time horizons are above 50% since the start of COVID-19.

Read more

Algorithmic Performance

Top ETFs: Daily Forecast Performance Evaluation Report

June 3, 2020

Executive Summary

In this stock market forecast evaluation report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for Best ETFs for long and short positions (20 ETFs) which were sent daily to our customers. Our analysis covers the time period from January 1, 2019, to May 24, 2020 and further analyzes the performance of the US market since the coronavirus pandemic (see ^S&P500 Price Movement chart below).

Best ETF
Best ETF

Top ETF Picks Evaluation Highlights:

  • The most impressive outperformance of the S&P 500 Index is from the Top 5 signal group in the 3-day horizon with 28 times more returns.
  • The Top 20, Top 10, and Top 5 signal groups generated by I Know First succeeded in outperforming S&P 500 Index in short term horizons.
  • The Top 5 signal group generated by I Know First succeeded in outperforming S&P 500 Index in the one-year horizon.
  • Every signal group generated by I Know First succeeded in outperforming S&P 500 since Coronavirus pandemic.
  • Every signal group has hit ratios equal to or higher than 50% for all time horizons.

Read more

Algorithmic Performance

Stock Market Predictions: I Know First Evaluation Report for AMAT – October 2019 Update

October 17, 2019

AMAT Predictions Executive Summary

In this forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of the stock market predictions generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the AMAT stock with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 3 months, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from the 1st January 2019 to 9th October 2019. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our AMAT predictions in the stock market. This evaluation continues the series of algorithmic performance monitoring that I Know First research team conducts for Applied Materials Inc. stock.

Highlights:

  • 96% Hit Ratio for 3-months time period of AMAT predictions allowing our clients to invest their money with significant accuracy
  • Predictions consistently above 57% accurate despite extremely volatile market period for the world economy and US stock market, in particular

Read Full Report

Algorithmic Performance

Evaluation Report For The Nikkei 225 Stock Universe – Consistently Outperforming Benchmarks

February 5, 2019

Executive Summary

In this Live Forecast Evaluation Report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Japanese stock market and sent to our customers on a daily basis. Our analysis covers the time period from January 1, 2018 – November 31, 2018. The following results were observed when signal and predictability filters were applied in order to pick the best performing stocks out of the most predictable ones. The main findings for the returns distribution of stock filters (stocks subsets) for the Nikkei 225 universe are outlined below:

Nikkei 225 Highlights:

  • Signal indicator filter applied to Top 30 most predictable stocks provides the highest return of 3.80% for Top 10 stocks on 3-months’ investment horizon.
  • We observe clear increasing trend on returns improving with the increase of forecast time horizon – the change in returns from 1 month to 3 months is more than 1361.5% for Top 10 stocks.
  • Top 10 stocks significantly out-perform both benchmarks, including Nikkei 225 actual performance recorded over the time under consideration, by over 475%.

The common pattern between the forecasts’ performance for the above stock universe is that systematic filtering by both signal and predictability provides the most benefit for long term investments, hence are more suited for private and institutional investors whose primary goal is to systematically identify assets which will provide the most gains of its value going forward in time.

Read The Evaluation Report

Algorithmic Performance

I Know First Live Forecast Evaluation Report For MSCI EMU Stock Universe – Significantly Beating The Benchmark

December 20, 2018

Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to present the results of live forecast performance evaluation for I Know First AI Algorithm, specifically for the MSCI EMU Index. The following results were observed when signal and predictability filters were applied in order to pick the best performing stocks out of the most predictable ones. The period under evaluation is from January 1st,2018 to November 1st, 2018.

MSCI EMU Stock Market Universe Highlights:

  • Signal indicator filter applied to Top 30 most predictable stocks provides the highest return of 3.71% for Top 5 stocks on 3-months’ investment horizon
  • There is a clear increasing trend for returns improvement with the time horizon increase – the return for all stocks beat the benchmark
  • The Top 5 stocks on 3-month’s investment horizon significantly out-perform the Benchmark by 5.75%

The above results were obtained based on forecasts’ evaluation over the specific time period using consecutive filtering approach – by predictability, then by signal, to give general overview of the forecasting capabilities of the algorithm for specific stock universe.

Read The Evaluation Report

MSCI Stocks Universe

I Know First Live Evaluation Report For The Singaporean Stock Universe: Top 5 Stock Signals Return 2.30% in A 3-Month Investment Horizon

December 16, 2018

Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to present the results of live forecast performance evaluation for I Know First AI Algorithm, specifically for Singaporean stock market. The following results were observed when signal and predictability filters were applied in order to pick the best performing stocks out of the most predictable ones. The period under evaluation is from January 1st,2018 to November 30th, 2018. The corresponding returns distribution of stock filters (stocks subsets) for both Singaporean stock market universe and the main findings are below:

Singaporean Stock Market Universe Highlights:

  • Signal indicator filter applied to Top 30 stocks by predictability provides the highest return of 2.30% for a 3-months’ investment horizon at Top 5 signals level
  • There is a clear increasing trend for returns’ improvement with the time horizon increase
  • Top 5 stocks by signal significantly out-perform the benchmark, in every time-horizon

The above results were obtained based on forecasts’ evaluation over the specific time period using  consecutive filtering approach – by predictability, then by signal, to give general overview of the forecasting capabilities of the algorithm for specific stock universe.

Read The Evaluation Report

Algorithmic Performance

I Know First Live Evaluation Report For The Singaporean Stock Universe: Top 5 Out-perform Bechmark by 210%

November 15, 2018

Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to present the results of live forecast performance evaluation for I Know First AI Algorithm, specifically for Singaporean stock market. The following results were observed when signal and predictability filters were applied in order to pick the best performing stocks out of the most predictable ones. The period under evaluation is from January 3rd,2018 to September 30th, 2018. The corresponding returns distribution of stock filters (stocks subsets) for both Singaporean stock market universe and the main findings are below:

Singaporean Stock Market Universe Highlights:

  • Signal indicator filter applied to Top 30 most predictable stocks provides the highest return of 4.66% for Top 5 stocks on 3-months’ investment horizon
  • There is a clear increasing trend for returns improvement with the time horizon increase – the delta in returns from 1 month to 3 months is more than 350% for Top 5 stocks
  • Top 5 stocks significantly out-perform the benchmark by over 210%

The above results were obtained based on forecasts’ evaluation over the specific time period using  consecutive filtering approach – by predictability, then by signal, to give general overview of the forecasting capabilities of the algorithm for specific stock universe.

Read The Evaluation Report

Algorithmic Performance
Pages:12»