Executive Summary:

This report presents a demonstration of Apple stock forecast performance generated by our AI Algorithm for the AAPL stock. The time ranging is from 3 days to 1 year, which were delivered on a daily basis to our clients. The following analysis will be covering the time period from June 1, 2019 through Sep 13, 2020. Here is a comprehensive display of the hit ratios of our Apple forecast in the stock market.

Highlights of the AAPL stock forecast:

• 100% Hit ratio for the one-year time period which gives our clients the confidence to invest with less risk
• Predictions are always above 62% precision regardless of market volatility
• In accordance with our AI predictions, the stock price increased by 155.90% over the studied time interval

We administered an evaluation through the above time period which gathered the following results. It provides a presentation for the AAPL movements. The following report provides a strong presentation of our approach and specific analysis of the performance. This following report is a new I Know First evaluation series showing the ability to provide successful forecasting on AAPL.

About the I Know First Algorithm

The above demonstration provides a simple explanation on how the I Know First Algorithm functions. Our algorithm is a combination of machine learning and artificial intelligence. It provides stock predictions from different financial assets for different time horizons. This algorithm uses 100% factual data which allows the generation forecasts for different assets such as: bonds, currencies, commodities and interest rates. The algorithm is able to keep up with market changes such as COVID-19. Also, it executes the most accurate predictions and results no matter how volatile the market is.

The above outcome is an example of a forecast. Our algorithm generates two different indicators for the stock- signal and predictability.

The signal is an indication of the strength, and the direction at which the stock moves. It can be positive or negative.

The predictability indicates our belief in the signal. We generate this value depending on past algorithmic performance and actual market movement. For more details click here.

Hit Ratio Calculation

The Hit Ratio allows us to determine how accurate our algorithm’s predictions are.

The Hit Ratio helps in comparing the movement determined using our algorithm against the actual movements of AAPL within the same horizon.

The following formula shows how we calculated the Hit Ratio:

Stock in Spotlight: AAPL Stock Forecast

The Apple stock has been generally growing from June 1st, 2019 until September 13, 2020. However, there has been a few fluctuations in the stock price between January – April, and again between August-September. These fluctuations can make it difficult for traders to calculate the returns. One of the big events that has been seen in the apple stock was an increase of 8% in sales due to the initiation of the new iPhone, according to Motley Fool’s Article. According to Forbes, the apple stock price has been increasing because of the announcement of the new 5G phone, the expansion of services, and the confidence most investors have in the Apple stock.

Evaluating Apple Stock Prediction Hit Ratio

The results above provide clear proof that I Know First advanced an algorithm that can consistently provide a forecast for the AAPL stock through different time horizons. These numbers show that I Know First was able to make accurate predictions for this time period, allowing our clients to make safe and calculated investments. In addition, we were able to predict the shorter time periods such as: 3 days, 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, and 3 months that were successfully matched. Having these accurate predictions allow our clients to make the right choices despite the volatility of the market.

This evaluation report is similar to our previous one here; however, there are a few key points that differ between the both. The initial evaluation report showed a hit ratio that is constantly above 65%, while this one shows a hit ratio that is only above 62%. Even though, this difference might be minute, I believe this is a cause of COVID-19 as it produced a constant fluctuation to the stock price. As we know, COVID-19 has been affecting the market strongly and I believe that the Apple stock’s volatility has been affected by it. At the beginning of COVID-19, people has been busy restocking for basic necessities, which took away their focus from technology. However, after that, since all jobs started being remote and one of the main important necessities was the use of technology, the number of sales increased sharply causing a great increase in the stock price.

Conclusion

We were able to provide our clients with accurate forecasts for this time period, which allowed them to choose the right investments. Our algorithm, using AI, helped us hone our predictions increasing the safety for our clients. Our Apple stock forecast was accurate enough despite all the fluctuations that has been happening in the market in the last few months. This high accuracy shows how robust our forecast is, and gives our clients more confidence in our predictions in a similar fashion that our AI-driven Tesla stock predictions analyzed recently. Being able to have a hit ratio of no less than 62% for the past year is a great sign of how precise our algorithm is, even during times of doubt.