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Brazil Stock Market: Daily Forecast Evaluation Report

August 5, 2020

Executive Summary

In this stock market forecast evaluation report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for Brazilian stocks for long and short positions (20 stocks) which were sent daily to our customers. Our analysis covers the period from January 1st, 2018, to June 30th, 2020.

Brazil stock market — Chart 1: Performance comparison for Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 long position signals by Daily Model vs Bovespa Index for short term horizons since January 1st, 2018 until June 30th, 2020

Brazilian Stocks Highlights

The Top 20, Top 10, and Top 5 signal groups generated by I Know First consistently outperformed Bovespa Index for almost all time horizons.
The Top 5 signal group outperformed the Bovespa by 16.23% using the 1 year time horizon.
All hit ratios for 7 day time horizon or longer are above 50%.
Using only long positions, every signal group for every time horizon outperformed Bovespa.
For long positions only, the top 5 signals with a 1 year time horizon outperformed the Bovespa Index by 21.07%.
Long position hit ratios for all time horizons longer than 3 days are above 50% and all 1 year forecast hit ratios are above 70%

Brazil Stock Market – Ideal Place for a Bounce-Back After the Severe Hurt of Coronavirus

May 28, 2020

The article was written by Chloe Peng, Analyst at I Know First., Master of Science of Finance candidate at Brandeis University.

Summary:

Goldman Sachs reports that Wall Street is bullish on Brazilian stocks and projects the index to reach 90,000, 9% above current level.
The macroeconomy of the country was significantly hurt by the pandemic and political issues with sectors performing differently.
I Know First is accurately generating daily forecasts on Brazil market with stock picks outperforming the market index.

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Bovespa Stocks Analysis: I Know First Evaluation Report

July 31, 2019

Executive Summary

In this Bovespa stocks analysis forecast evaluation report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for short-term and long-term stocks from the Bovespa Stock Exchange which is sent to our customers on a daily basis. Our analysis covers the time period from 1 January 2019 to 30 July 2019. We will start with an introduction to our asset picking and benchmarking methods and then apply it to the Bovespa stock universe as covered by the I Know First’s “Brazilian Stocks” package. We will then compare returns based on our algorithm with the benchmark performance over the same period.

Bovespa Stocks Analysis Highlights:

The best returns were obtained in the 3 months time horizon, with the best performance being a return of 4.71% for the top 10 predictability and signal filtered assets during this time-horizon.
All signals in the 3-month time horizon beat the benchmark, with the best outperformance being the top 10 assets which beat the benchmark by over 79%.
The best hit ratios were similarly obtained for the 3 months time horizon, with the best hit ratio being 60% for the top 10 predictability and signal filtered assets.