Investment Strategies: Who is Winning in the Battle between Active vs Passive Investors

August 10, 2023
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Over 50% of U.S. Large-Cap active managers have underperformed the S&P 500 in 18 of the past 21 years.
  • The percentage of funds underperforming expands as the investment horizon lengthens, ranging from around 55% over a 1-year horizon to 94% over a 20-year horizon for U.S. funds.
  • The IKF AI algorithms can assist in identifying the latest investment opportunities and enhancing the performance of active investment strategies.

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Herding Behavior on the Stock Market

April 20, 2023
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Herding behavior refers to the tendency of individuals to follow the actions or decisions of a larger group of people, rather than making independent decisions.
  • The CSAD model enables us to identify periods of herding behavior on the stock market.
  • We implement the CSAD model and identify cases of herding behavior on the stock market for the period from January 1st, 2020 to April 19th, 2023.

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Entropy Test: Identifying the Dimension Where Deterministic Chaos is alive in Financial Markets

March 15, 2023
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • The approximate entropy test enables us to identify when deterministic chaotic patterns start in financial assets.
  • There are non-linear dependence patterns in the 3-day interval for the S&P500, precious metal ETFs, volatility ETFs, debt market ETFs, real-estate ETF, US dollar ETF, and cryptocurrencies.
  • We could not reject the hypothesis of linear dependence for the platinum ETF.
  • The I Know First AI algorithm allows for identifying non-linear dependencies in financial assets to find the most promising investment opportunities.

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Modeling Volatility with TGARCH

September 5, 2022
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Volatility has a number of statistical properties that must be taken into account in the modeling process.
  • The TGARCH model is one of the GARCH family models which allows for modeling volatility.
  • I Know First provides volatility predictions for short-term and long-term periods based on the machine learning approach.

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Volatility Scaling with Autocorrelation

July 18, 2022
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Autocorrelation enables us to estimate the volatility of an investment portfolio in a more precise way.
  • The S&P 500 returns characterize by negative autocorrelation which means that the S&P 500 has a less grade of risk than the estimation based on the assumption of stock returns independency.
  • The I Know First AI algorithm provides us with the tool to select the most promising stocks.

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Hedge and Safe Haven Financial Assets

July 4, 2022
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Gold, short-term treasury bills, long-term treasury bonds, the spread between the long-term treasury and corporate bonds, 5-month volatility, and 1-month volatility are uncorrelated or negatively correlated with the S&P500 making them good candidates for a role of a hedge asset.
  • 5-month and 1-month volatility as exchange trade products, and also the short-term government bills and long-term government bonds able to play a role of a safe haven asset.
  • Correlation analysis of the S&P500 and TNX shows that the correlation structure is not consistent from data frame to data frame.

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Stock Market Forecast: Does the Stock Market Feature Memory?

April 28, 2022
This article was written by:

Sergey Okun Sergey Okun – Financial Analyst at I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Alisa IartsevaAlisa Iartseva – Data analyst at I Know First.

Highlights:

  • The stock market has a long-term memory that allows us to make reliable predictions of the future based on previous behaviors and tendencies.
  • The S&P 500 has the highest Hurst exponent compared with the DAX 30, the CAC 40, and the FTSE 100.
  • The Hurst exponent rises with the extension of the step period length which decreases noise in a time series and increases predictability.

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