Stock Market Predictions: I Know First Evaluation Report for TEVA
TEVA Predictions Executive Summary
In this forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of the stock market predictions generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the TEVA stock with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 3 months, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from the 1st January 2019 to 21st July 2019. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our TEVA predictions in the stock market.
Highlights:
- 99% Hit Ratio for 3-months time period of TEVA predictions allowing our clients to be able to invest their money with significant less risk
- Predictions consistently above 54% accurate despite very volatile times in the world economy over the last half year
Note that the above results were obtained as a result of an evaluation conducted over the specific time period to give a presentation for the TEVA movements. The following report provides an extensive explanation of our methodology and detailed analysis of the performance metrics that we obtained during the evaluation. This report is a new I Know First evaluation series illustrating the ability to provide successful forecasting on TEVA.
About the I Know First Algorithm
The I Know First self-learning algorithm analyses, models, and provides stock market predictions for the capital markets, including stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and interest rates. The algorithm is based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) and incorporates elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms.
The system outputs the predicted trend as a number, positive or negative, along with a wave chart that predicts how the waves will overlap with the predicted trend. Consequently, the trader can decide which direction to trade, when to enter the trade, and when to exit the trade. The model is 100% empirical, based only on factual data, thereby avoiding any biases or emotions that may accompany human assumptions. I Know First’s model only involves the human factor in building the mathematical framework and providing the initial set of inputs and outputs to the system. The algorithm produces a forecast with a signal and a predictability indicator. The signal is the number in the middle of the box. The predictability is the number at the bottom of the box. At the top, a specific asset is identified. This format is consistent across all predictions.
Our algorithm provides two independent indicators for the index – signal and predictability.
The signal is the predicted strength and direction of movement of the index. This is measured from –inf to +inf.
The predictability indicates our confidence in the signal. The predictability is a Pearson correlation coefficient relating to past algorithmic performance and actual market movement, measured from -1 to 1. You can find a detailed description of our heatmap here
The Hit Ratio Calculation
The hit ratio helps us to identify the accuracy of our algorithm’s predictions.
We predict the direction of movement of TEVA using our algorithm. Our predictions are then compared against actual movements of TEVA within the same time horizon.
The hit ratio is then calculated as follows:
Stock in Spotlight: TEVA Predictions
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited is a pharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in developing, producing and marketing generic medicines and a portfolio of specialty medicines. The Company operates through two segments: Generic medicines and Specialty medicines. The Company develops, manufactures and sells generic medicines in a range of dosage forms, including tablets, capsules, injectables, inhalants, liquids, ointments and creams. Its specialty medicines business focuses on delivering a range of solutions to patients and providers through medicines, devices and services in various regions and markets around the world. Its specialty medicines business includes its core therapeutic areas of central nervous system (CNS) and respiratory medicines with a focus on asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It also has specialty products in oncology, women’s health and selected other areas.
TEVA is listed on the NYSE stock exchange.
Evaluating the Stock Market Predictions Hit Ratio
Through the results above, you can see that we at I Know First have developed an algorithm that can consistently predict the TEVA throughout various time periods. On average through 2019, I Know First has achieved the incredible feat of hitting the TEVA’s exact movement 99% of the time for the 3-months prediction time slot. This, in essence, means that the algorithm will be correct almost all the time on the 3-months time slot allowing our clients to make the safest investments. Additionally, to that, we can also predict the 3-day time horizon, 7-day time horizon, 14-day time horizon and one-month time horizon at 60%, 61%, 54% and 77% accuracy respectively. This allows our investors to have a safer outlook when investing despite these quick and volatile time periods.
Conclusion
All in all, we at I Know First have a mission to provide our clients with the best information about the future. By sharpening our ability to predict the TEVA through our artificial intelligence system, we provide our clients with increasing certainty that their investment will be safer and more profitable. Within the bounds of certainty, we have consistently been able to find that we can predict the TEVA movements above 54% of the time over the last half year. The peak of that is the 99% hit ratio over the 3-months time slot rendering our services can predict the movement almost all the time on average.
