Stock Forecast Based on AI: Tiered Investment Strategy with the Majority Direction


Stock Forecast Based on AI: I Know First provides investment solutions for both individual and institutional investors, utilizing an advanced AI self-learning algorithm to gain a competitive advantage. We offer a personalized approach to our institutional clients, assisting them in their investment process based on their specific needs and preferences. For more details about I Know First solutions for institutional investors, please visit our website.

Stock Forecast Based on AI: Tiered Investment Strategy with the Majority Direction

Stock Forecast Based on AI: The following trading strategy was developed using I Know First’s AI Algorithm daily forecasts from January 1st, 2020, to November 15th, 2023, with a focus on S&P 500 stocks selected based on the signal filter. The result of this strategy serves as an example of the trading solutions that I Know First (IKF) could offer to institutional clients.

The strategy involves constructing a tier-weighted portfolio with monthly rebalancing, achieved through the implementation of the signal filter. Moreover, the strategy controls the majority direction. The term “majority direction” refers to our predictions for stocks, upon which we base our position. This decision is guided by a number of long and short stock forecasts. Therefore, if the count of long stock forecasts surpasses the count of short stock forecasts, the majority direction is to go long and we construct a long portfolio. Conversely, if the count of short stock forecasts is higher, we assume a short portfolio.

The strategy involves trading GICS level 2 ETFs based on the majority direction. While, the Level 1 Sectors include broad segments of the economy, such as technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer goods to provide a high-level view of the market. Level 2 Industries goes deep into specific industries. For example, within the technology sector (Level 1), you might find industries like semiconductors, software, and hardware. These industries offer a more detailed perspective on the market.

In the case of this strategy, if the majority direction is long, we construct a tiered weighted portfolio with 90% in equities. Additionally, we select two GICS level 2 industries with more stocks from a chosen stock universe based on the signal filter, allocating a total of 10% weight in our portfolio to them. The ETFs in our portfolio are weighted depending on the number of stocks from the selected universe in each industry. For example, if there are 7 stocks from XHB and 3 from XRT, they would be weighted as 70% and 30%, respectively, in the portfolio. If the majority direction is short, we buy 100% of SPY and go short in two GICS level 1 industries with a weight of 20% of our portfolio. We rebalance the portfolio on a monthly basis.

The strategy provides a positive return of 150.93% which exceeded the S&P 500 return by 112.37%. Below we can notice the strategy behavior for each year.

I Know First Algorithm – Seeking the Key &  Generating Stock Market Forecast

Stock market predictions: Basic Principle of the "I Know First" Predictive Algorithm

The I Know First predictive algorithm is a successful attempt to discover the rules of the market that enable us to make accurate stock market forecasts. Taking advantage of artificial intelligence and machine learning and using insights of chaos theory and self-similarity (the fractals), the algorithmic system is able to predict the behavior of over 13,500 markets. The key principle of the algorithm lies in the fact that a stock’s price is a function of many factors interacting non-linearly. Therefore, it is advantageous to use elements of artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms. How does it work? At first, an analysis of inputs is performed, ranking them according to their significance in predicting the target stock price. Then multiple models are created and tested utilizing 15 years of historical data. Only the best-performing models are kept while the rest are rejected. Models are refined every day, as new data becomes available. As the algorithm is purely empirical and self-learning, there is no human bias in the models and the market forecast system adapts to the new reality every day while still following general historical rules.


I Know First offers investment solutions for institutional investors, leveraging our advanced self-learning algorithm to gain a competitive advantage. We provide a personalized approach for our institutional clients, enhancing their investment process according to their specific needs and preferences. In this context, we have evaluated the performance of the tiered investment strategy with the majority direction during the period from January 1st, 2020, to November 15th, 2023.

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Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast.