What If Scenarios

What Is the “What If Scenario” of  I Know First?

Our latest forecasting product is the “What If Scenarios”, a tool to simulate different market conditions. These scenarios are based on our current forecasting algorithms and endeavor to see beyond tomorrow’s actions of major market players.  They provide macroeconomic perspectives to monetary policies and market fluctuations.

For example, what if tomorrow the oil goes up by 10%, what will be the market forecast then? It is just one example of the immense possibilities we can exploit to make investment decisions.

More information about what-if scenarios can be found here in our algorithmic article about response modeling and what-if analysis.

How does it work?

Interest rates, oil prices, currency rates, are in the hands of a few major market influencers, such as governments and oil producers. Assuming different possible actions by these big players, we can forecast the outcome of their actions.

Also, the market sentiment can change due to some unexpected event, which affects the major indexes.

Our algorithms will assess the current global events and their effects on the market. This will allow you to know which market will react, how strongly it will react and in what direction?

The answer to such eventualities is not obvious. It all depends on the circumstances, on current market conditions, and what preceded them. Thus we will also measure the market sensitivity to such moves, and even assign a probability, for example, of anticipated Fed or ECB actions, and what the market reaction will be, based on these simulations.

This market sensitivity, a measure of global systemic risk should concern every trader and policy maker, and is a subject of our current research.

How can I get this “What If Scenario”?

This service was meant for institutional investors who desire to see more detailed scenarios for their investment plan, though it can also be adapted to other needs.

Step 1: Decide which scenario is the one you have expectations for

Step 2: Send an email to [email protected] with your inquiry to get your quote.