Tomer Solel is a Financial Analyst  at I Know First. He graduated from Cal Poly Pomona with a bachelor’s degree in applied mathematics.

Algorithmic Trading

Swing Trading Report

This trades report is a part of I Know First Successful Swing Trading Strategy. The overall return from July 1^st, 2014 to November 30^th, 2015 was 98.96% using this strategy, while the S&P 500 returned only 6.13% during the same period.

In this article, we will discuss some of the top stocks which were included in this I Know First swing trading report. Looking at individual development of stocks, I Know First returned 33.92% outperforming S&P 500 by 26.79% over the whole period.

From this graph, we can see following the blue line that there was a boom in stocks during the period from March 8^th, 2015 until April 16^th, 2015. This article will focus on this time period, and show how the boom occurred.

During the above boom period the IKF Stocks Swing Trading Strategy managed to beat the S&P 500 by 22.53%, which equals $2,253 assuming $10,000 initial investment, as shown below:

Let’s examine the top 3 contributing stocks during that period:

China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd. (ZNH)- China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides air transportation services in the People’s Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through Airline Transportation Operations and Other segments. China’s benchmark stock index rose to its highest level during that time, allowing stocks in the airline industry to surge. During that surge, this airline opened new routes connecting Guangzhou with cities in Southwest Asia, Europe, and Africa.

Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. Ltd. (YZC) – Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, mining, washing, processing, and sale of coal in China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. In the end of March, the group continued to expand the business of the sales of externally purchased coal, reaching 57.02 million tons and went up 44% in just 1 year.

Vale S.A. (VALE) – Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, production, and sale of iron ore and pellets, nickel, fertilizer, copper, coal, manganese, ferroalloys, cobalt, platinum group metals, and precious metals in Brazil and internationally. They announced in the end of March that they produced 74.5 million tons of iron ore in the first quarter which was a company record. VALE opened a 2.8 percent gap in Sao Paolo. Vale also announced 69,200 tons of nickel and 1.7 million tons of coal for the same quarter.

Overall, for the stocks traded during this period the long position showed dominance over the short one with nearly identical hit ratios:

The following stocks accumulated the most trading days:

SLW – 12
YZC – 10
ZNH – 9
VALE – 9
JNPR – 8
USG – 8

Now for the in depth trade report of the top 3 contributing stocks:

I Know First Trade Report: ZNH, 20.94% in 10 Trading Days

On March 11^th, 2015, the IKF algorithm had a strong bullish signal for ZNH. The previous closing price moved above the 5 day simple moving average (SMA), which along with the signal gave a strong indication to buy the stock at its opening. Below is the original forecast and the resulting trade, which made 20.94% in just 10 trading days.

*Sell Line: The Sell Line depicts the absolute lower bound (LB) for the signal strength. Here +10 for long positions and -10 for short positions. No positions are taken/held for signals in between (-LB; LB).

Key Numbers and Dates

You would take a long position in this stock on 3/11/2015 according to the IKF algorithm. The signal for that day for ZNH was 131.76. You would sell the stock on the morning of 3/24/2015 with a market opening price of $30.20, since the SMA-rule for the closing price no longer holds.

Where could I have found this forecast?

ZNH belongs to our section titled “Stock Forecast & S&P500 Forecast”. On 3/11/2015, the stock was positioned 1st, making it available to anyone who subscribes to “Top 10” and above.

I Know First Trade Report: YZC, 42.55% in 8 Trading Days

On March 30^th, I Know First released a bullish signal on its 1 month forecast for YZC. At that time, the previous closing price moved above the 5 day simple moving average, making it a strong buy. Below is the original forecast along with the resulting trade which made 42.55% in just 8 trading days.

Key Numbers and Dates

You would go long in this stock on March 30^th 2015, according to the IKF signal you received that day which stood at 74.54, and the closing price being above the 5 day SMA. You would sell the stock at the market opening price of $11.76 on April 9^th, because the signal became too weak, in fact it even turned negative.

Where could I have found this forecast?

YZC belongs to our section titled “Stock Forecast & S&P500 Forecast”. On 3/30/2015, the stock was positioned 1st for the one month period, making it available to anyone who subscribes to “Top 10” and above.

I Know First Trade Report: VALE, 2.55% in 7 Trading Days

(Within the swing trading strategy, 3.74% in 5 days)

On April 6^th, I Know First released a bullish signal on its 1 month forecast for VALE. At that time, the price moved above the 5 day simple moving average, making it a strong stock. Below is the original forecast along with the resulting trade which made 2.55% in 7 trading days.

Key Numbers and Dates

You would go long in the stock on April 6^th 2015, according to the IKF signal you received that day which stood at 49.45 and the stock closing above the 5 day simple moving average on April 5^th, 2015. You would sell the stock at the market opening price of $6.04 on April 14^th, because the simple moving average rule was broken previously at the closing. However, within the swing trading strategy, the long trade for VALE initiated on April 6^th was closed two trading days earlier on the morning of April 10^th with a 3.74% return due to availability of better qualified trades (top 4 picks) with respect to the signal strength on that day.

Where could I have found this forecast?

VALE belongs to our section titled “Stock Forecast & S&P500 Forecast”. On 4/6/2015, the stock was positioned 2^nd for the one month period, making it available to anyone who subscribes to “Top 10” and above.

Conclusion

This Article helps us analyze the period between March 8^th, 2015, and April 16^th, 2015. The I Know First algorithm had a great return during that time period, easily outperforming the S&P500. ZNH, YZC, and VALE were some of the top contributors that were correctly identified by the I Know First algorithm leading to this successful result.