Apple Stock Forecast: Executive Summary

In this Apple stock forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of the Apple stock forecast generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the AAPL stock with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 1 year, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from 1st October 2019 to 1st January 2021. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our AAPL predictions in the stock market

Highlights:

• 100% Hit Ratio for the 1-year time period for AAPL stock forecast allowing our clients to be able to invest their money with significantly less risk
• Predictions consistently hit above 57% accuracy despite volatile market conditions

We administered an evaluation through the above time period which gathered the following results. It provides a presentation for the AAPL movements. The following report provides a strong presentation of our approach and a specific analysis of the performance. The following report continues I Know First evaluation series showing the ability to provide successful forecasting on AAPL.

About the I Know First Algorithm

The above demonstration provides a simple explanation of how the I Know First Algorithm functions. Our algorithm is a combination of machine learning and artificial intelligence. It provides stock predictions from different financial assets for different time horizons. This algorithm uses 100% factual data which allows the generation of forecasts for different assets such as bonds, currencies, commodities, and interest rates. The algorithm is able to keep up with market changes such as COVID-19. Also, it executes the most accurate predictions and results no matter how volatile the market is.

The above outcome is an example of a forecast. Our algorithm generates two different indicators for the stock- signal, and predictability.

The signal is an indication of the strength and the direction in which the stock moves. It can be positive or negative.

The predictability indicates our belief in the signal. We generate this value depending on past algorithmic performance and actual market movement. For more details click here.

Hit Ratio Calculation

The Hit Ratio allows us to determine how accurate our algorithm’s predictions are.

The Hit Ratio helps in comparing the movement determined using our algorithm against the actual movements of AAPL within the same horizon.

The following formula shows how we calculated the Hit Ratio:

Apple Stock Forecast: Substantial Earnings & Growth Despite The COVID-19

From 1st October 2019 to 1st January 2021, the Apple stock price has fluctuated. However, there have been a few fluctuations in the stock price between January – April, and again between August-September. Traders must spot such changes in prices to profit during volatile times in the stock market.

Major tech companies hit record levels during the coronavirus pandemic as consumers rely more on e-commerce, video streaming, and other services they provide. Investors are betting that these companies will emerge stronger from the pandemic than smaller competitors.

Apple becomes the first publicly listed U.S. company with a $2 trillion stock market value. Apple’s revenue grew across all categories and geographies in the June quarter, even as the coronavirus crisis has shrunk the US economy at its worst rate since the Great Depression.

Apple now accounts for about 7% of the total market value of the S&P 500. Its market capitalization is roughly equal to the 200 smallest companies’ combined value in the S&P 500.

Evaluating Apple Stock Forecast Hit Ratio

Through the results above, you can see that we at I Know First have developed an algorithm that can consistently predict AAPL stock movements throughout various time periods. On average, I Know First has achieved the incredible feat of hitting AAPL exact movement 100% of the time for the 1-year prediction time horizon. This, in essence, means that the algorithm was correct all the time on the 1-year time horizon, allowing our clients to make the safest investments. Additionally, to that, we can also predict the 3-day time horizon, 7-day time horizon, 14-day time horizon, one-month time horizon, and 3-months time horizon at 57%, 65%, 68%, 62%, and 73% accuracy respectively. The increased volatility has impacted the short time horizons compared to the previous forecast. However, the hit ratio has retained high predictability over long time horizons. This allows our investors to have a safer outlook when investing despite these quick and volatile time periods.

Conclusion

It is important that even the forecasts for the shortest time horizon have demonstrated a hit ratio well above the conventional machine learning waterline above 50%, while the average hit ratio across all the time horizons is 70%. This means that I Know First customers could be highly certain in the forecasts they are getting are based on statistically meaningful relationships picked up by the AI algorithm in the fresh market data and can be used as a solid basis for decision-making amid these volatile time periods. Apple now accounts for about 7% of the total market value of the S&P 500. Its market capitalization is roughly equal to the 200 smallest companies’ combined value in the S&P 500. The analysts remain bullish on the increased importance of consumer computing devices to support work, play and learn from home, benefiting iPad/Mac sales.